Formalization and evaluation of prior knowledge based on prior/posterior predictive inference
Research replication is increasingly becoming an important topic. It has two main goals: to reduce the probability of false positives and false negatives; and, to test the generalizability of research conclusions to other (sub)populations and related (but not necessarily exactly the same as in the original study) contexts. Currently the methodologies that are available for research replication are rather limited. In this project a new methodology will be developed, evaluated, and applied. Knowledge derived from existing animal studies, completed waves of cohorts, and expert elicitation will be formalized into effect size models. Subsequently the support in new data for these effect size models will be quantified using prior and posterior predictive checks. The performance of this new approach will be evaluated by means of a simulation study and through its use (in cooperation with other CID researchers) in three case studies: translating the results of animal studies into effect size models with respect to the development of children; replication of results from a study with respect to attention style as conditional adaptation with different subpopulations and contexts; and, replication of expert expectations with respect to the relation between exposure to stories and the development of social competence and self-regulation.
Prof. H. Hoijtink, Dr. A. G. J. van de Schoot
1 July 2014 – 1 July 2018